Abrupt shifts in Arctic climate projected: Likelihood of an abrupt increase in wildfires also noted

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BANGALORE, India – The possibility of an abrupt increase in wildfires in the Arctic is highlighted in a new study published in the Journal of Environment and Global Change (JEC). It is now forecast to rise to 60 times average annual fire intensity in the Arctic Circle by 2050 from 23 times in today’s record high.

Fire experts saw climate change as an increasing risk to human and animal survival from the introduction of this abrupt global shift.

“If the recent spike in fire activity is extrapolated across a whole region, it raises the risk of global climate change as large proportion of forest fire activity will be met by accelerated rapid rises in the Arctic ,” says the study’s first author, Janet Jette, a research scientist at the University of Sydney in Australia.

Jette and colleagues studied study data, observed fires over the last 10 decades in a sample area in the Northern Hemisphere. They looked at how fire had progressed from one region to another and projected increases in wildfire intensity by several different scenarios, ranging from much lower increases in general fire intensity to rapid increases in wildfire intensity across the Arctic.

Some of the findings confirm previous findings, Jette said, including those of trends in mortality mortality for both livestock and people, home loss, fishery resources, and agriculture.

“The threat of rapid wildfires does not have a perfect prognosis,” Jette said. But she concluded that its effects are not necessarily cyclical.

“Heat changes in the Arctic do pose a serious climate change threat to human and animal survival,” she said. “Warming and falling snow and ice levels will increase the risk of landslides, floods, and wildfires in these regions.”

Tipp: Arctic, Circle, Climate, Fire, Fish, Global, Home, Human, Region, Survival, Wild

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